McCain vs. Obama: It's Neck and Neck


By ANJEANETTE DAMON, Reno Gazette-Journal
August 26, 2008

Article Excerpt:

As Democrats prepare to gather for a national convention meant to focus on what the party hopes is an emerging strength in the West, a new poll shows U.S. Sen. Barack Obama locked in a neck-and-neck battle with Republican rival U.S. Sen. John McCain in Nevada.

In a reflection of Nevada's status as a pivotal Western swing state, Obama, D-Ill., is leading McCain, R-Ariz., by 1 percent, according to the Reno Gazette-Journal/Channel 2-KTVN News poll.

Of 600 likely voters surveyed statewide, 44 percent supported Obama and 43 percent supported McCain. Three percent favored Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, and 2 percent favored independent Ralph Nader. Two percent supported other candidates, and 6 percent remained undecided.

The poll, conducted by

Maryland-based Research 2000 from Monday to Wednesday, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.

Political observers on both sides attributed the inability of either candidate to establish an early lead in Nevada so far to a lack of voter engagement, a situation expected to change in coming days as both parties near their national conventions.

"The base on both sides is locked in, and I think will come home to them," pollster Del Ali said. "This will really be determined by the independents, who really aren't paying too much attention right now."

Neither candidate has yet named a running mate, another factor that could influence the numbers.

But Monday marks the true kickoff of the general election campaign cycle when the Democrats begin their four-day convention in Denver. Republicans follow the week after, opening on Sept. 1 in St. Paul, Minn.

The survey also suggests what local political observers have been saying for months, that the race might be won or lost in Washoe County.

While Obama has a 7-point lead in Clark County, the state's Democratic stronghold, the race is almost dead even in Washoe County, traditionally a Republican area.

"That county, each cycle, is becoming more and more purple," Ali said, referring to the color political observers traditionally assign to swing areas. "When I started polling Nevada, that was a pretty solidly conservative county. The fact that it is tied now means it is a true swing county."

The poll reflects a close overall race, but also hints at emerging strengths and weaknesses for each candidate.

McCain is leading by

13 points among independent voters, a constituency both campaigns are struggling to woo. But the fact McCain hasn't pulled ahead in Washoe County has some Republicans worried.

"I think the independents will decide the race, as they often do," said Robert Uithoven, a Republican consultant and a McCain supporter. "The Washoe numbers need to improve for Senator McCain. But there's plenty of time for that to take place."

Obama has a strong lead among women and Latinos, despite a focused effort by the McCain campaign to make inroads with those voters. His support among women, with whom he leads McCain by 13 percent, also indicated U.S. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's supporters are moving more easily to the Obama ticket.

But while Democrats have been bragging about a surge in voter registrations that have them outnumbering Republicans in Nevada by the largest margin in at least a decade, the poll doesn't reflect a corresponding surge in support for Obama.

"Obama has not proven to have benefited from those registration gains," Uithoven said.

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