McCain's Trade Focus Seen As Strategy That May Pay Off


By Tom Barkley, Wall Street Journal
July 3, 2008

Article Excerpts:

WASHINGTON -- Sen. John McCain has thrust trade back into the center of the presidential campaign, reviving an issue that sparked heated debate in the Democratic primaries.

While Democrats have used the North American Free Trade Agreement and China's trade surplus as symbols of the declining competitiveness of U.S. manufacturing, McCain is seeking to burnish his free-trade credentials.

The presumptive Republican nominee is traveling to Colombia this week, at a time when a free trade agreement with the country is being held up in the Democratic-controlled Congress. He will then make a stopover in Mexico, completing a tour of the Nafta partners following a trip to Canada earlier this month.

That's a risky strategy during a period of economic malaise and job insecurity, but is one that typically pays off in presidential elections.

"Historically candidates who really run against trade haven't won the presidency," said Ed Gresser, trade policy director for the Progressive Policy Institute, a center-left think tank affiliated with the Democratic Leadership Council. The last candidate to win on an antitrade platform was Republican Herbert Hoover, said Mr. Gresser, who recently wrote a book on the history of trade politics in the U.S. . . .

Meanwhile, Sen. McCain faces his own task of balancing his championing of free trade with an effort "to show that he understands anxieties, the sense of pressures people feel from Chinese competition or from Internet-driven globalization of services," said Mr. Gresser.

While there is agreement that traveling to promote a trade agenda -- or even leaving the country during a campaign -- is unusual, views on whether Sen. McCain's strategy will work are largely split down partisan lines. . . .

Pro-trade groups point out that exports are one of the few bright lights of the economy right now, accounting for eight-tenths of the 1.0% expansion in gross domestic product last quarter.

"Our key message is, trade is one-third of our economy, and you cannot overlook that. So any actions to isolate ourselves from the rest of the world would have a devastating impact on our economy," said Christopher Wenk, director of international policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which doesn't endorse candidates.

Still, Wenk acknowledged that it's "hard to say" whether Sen. McCain will benefit from bringing attention to the candidates' differences on trade.

"Obviously the Chamber is concerned that a lot of the economic woes are being blamed on trade, and we think unfairly so," he said.

In addition to several recent polls showing that a majority of Americans think trade is bad for the economy, the Chamber has done its own focus groups on the issue.

"Free trade in theory does resonate with people, just barely," said Mr. Wenk. "But what we really need to be talking about is free and fair trade, particularly if we're talking about free trade agreements. For the most part, they are more in favor of the U.S., because our markets are already so open."

Meanwhile, the fate of the Colombia trade agreement in remains uncertain in Congress, where House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has postponed a vote indefinitely.

Some congressional watchers predicted that Sen. McCain's decision to bring trade to the fore of the campaign will harden Democratic resolve to hold off a vote.

However, U.S. Trade Representative spokesman Sean Spicer said it's positive when members of either party can "travel to Colombia and see the positive impact that these trade agreements can have on both Colombia and U.S. workers."

Mr. Spicer said he remains hopeful that a deal can get done, along with assistance for workers displaced by trade.

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